MFGA Press Release - Healthy Grasslands Are Major Key to Future Ground Water Challenges and Climate Resilience
“The future really starts now in many ways, including how we prepare our farms and fields for times ahead, [...] I think we all see and expect changes ahead; this gives us a more exact look at what those changes might look like and the importance of grasslands and groundwater recharge to all of us in times right now.”
The Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association (MFGA) has released findings from a recent study with Aquanty examining how climate change could affect water resources and agricultural landscapes in southern Manitoba through 2050 and 2100.
The study, supported through Manitoba Environment and Climate Change Climate Action Funding, used the MFGA Aquanty Model to examine future climate conditions across three previously modelled watersheds: Pembina Valley, Swan Lake, and Oak River. The results highlight the increasingly important role that healthy grasslands and groundwater recharge could play in helping agricultural landscapes build resilience to future climate conditions.
Led by Aquanty’s Dr. Steve Frey, the modelling projects significant impacts to water resources by mid- and end-century driven by warmer temperatures, alongside declining snowpack, shifts in runoff timing, and increasing water losses through evapotranspiration. These changes could have significant implications for forage and pasture systems. Increasing evapotranspiration is expected to place additional stress on soil moisture and watershed water balances, increasing the potential for pasture drying and reduced forage availability during the mid-to-late summer. The study also identifies a progressive decline in subsurface water storage over the course of the century, particularly under end-of-century climate conditions. Increasing evapotranspiration and reduced snowpack are identified as key drivers of this decline, reinforcing the importance of protecting areas that support groundwater recharge.
As Dr. Frey explains in the MFGA release, maintaining perennial grasslands and protecting groundwater recharge functions could therefore become increasingly important climate adaptation strategies. Forages and grasslands, along with wetlands, forests and healthy soils, can help promote groundwater recharge and reduce surface runoff in sensitive areas. For cattle producers, these findings have practical implications. Declining groundwater storage could affect the long-term reliability of dugouts, wetlands and groundwater-fed livestock watering sources. The research points to the value of planning now for conditions that may become increasingly challenging in the decades ahead, including through grazing and land management practices that support healthy, resilient landscapes.
Read the full report to explore the study and its findings in greater detail.
Building on more than a decade of collaboration
The study is the latest chapter in a long-running collaboration between MFGA and Aquanty. For more than a decade, the organizations have worked together to apply integrated hydrologic modelling to better understand water movement, flood and drought risk, land management, and the role of grasslands across the Assiniboine River Basin.
Through the MFGA Aquanty Model project, this work has helped explore how different land management practices can influence hydrologic conditions and how healthy agricultural landscapes can contribute to resilience during periods of flood and drought.
The collaboration has also moved beyond long-term scenario modelling into operational forecasting. Aquanty operates the MFGA-Aquanty Water Forecast Tool, a real-time hydrologic forecasting system covering the entire Assiniboine River Basin. The platform provides forward-looking information on water conditions across the basin, helping translate complex hydrologic modelling into information that can support land managers, watershed districts, agricultural producers, Indigenous communities and other decision-makers.
Together, the long-term climate projections highlighted in this latest study and the real-time forecasting capabilities of the broader MFGA-Aquanty project demonstrate how integrated hydrologic modelling can support decisions across very different timescales — from understanding current and near-term water conditions to planning for how Manitoba's landscapes and water resources may change decades into the future.
Click here to learn more about our ongoing collaboration with the MFGA.