Sub-Seasonal Soil Moisture Forecasting powered by HydroGeoSphere

Aquanty is currently developing a sub-seasonal to seasonal (1 month or longer) soil moisture forecasting technology based on our fully integrated hydrologic modelling platform HydroGeoSphere. The technology relies on open-source land-use data paired with regionally downscaled weather/climate forecasts and allows users to launch a very detailed soil moisture forecast for any region. 

The forecast itself is produced by a 1-dimensional HydroGeoSphere (HGS) column model incorporating surface flow, variably saturated groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration. The model will then be driven forward in time using regionally downscaled weather/climate forecasts. The entire platform is designed to be fully automated, and the underlying simulation(s) are run in the cloud, allowing us to produce these soil moisture forecasts quite rapidly (e.g. a few minutes or less).  

All model inputs and weather/climate forecasts are specific to a particular farm, field, or distinct location, giving the user a very precise soil moisture forecast for their specific point of interest! 

The targeted seasonal timescale is a natural fit for soil moisture and agricultural production and puts the product at the cutting edge of what is possible in the field of soil moisture forecasting. This is an emerging technology that has the potential to significantly improve management practices and planning in agriculture, while also increasing resilience in the face of a changing climate.

Furthermore, since HGS is a fully physics driven model (with minimal use of empirical equations) it provides one of the most advanced and scientifically sound methods of forecasting the hydrology of surficial soils!

This emerging technology will be very useful to a variety of stakeholders with an interest in soil moisture, including farmers/agricultural producers, precision agriculture consultants/practitioners, crop consultants, agronomist and crop researchers, irrigation suppliers, futures/commodity traders, and others.

In short, you can create advanced hydrological models (with evapotranspiration) incorporating specific crop/land use details with just a few clicks!

We are actively looking for feedback on this emerging technology!

Click here to leave feedback on our Sub-seasonal soil moisture forecasting survey.

Let’s take a sneak-peek at what this new forecasting technology looks like!

Note: images below are taken from Aquanty’s AgSat platform, although we are eager to collaborate with others. It is possible to deploy this technology through other web platforms/applications via API.

Step 1) Specify the forecast location

Using the AgSat web-platform (or a similar web-based mapping platform) the user will click on a map to specify the location of the desired soil moisture forecast.

Step 2) Soil/Crop Type Characteristics are Updated Automatically

Model characteristics are defined automatically using open-government data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. However, the user is able to modify these characteristics using the dropdown menu if the data are not accurate.

Step 3) The Column Model is Constructed and Saved to your Account

When you click ‘Build’ a 1-dimensional column model is generated. A simulation is now ready to be run forward in time using regionally downscaled climate forecasts!

Step 4) Access the Column Model

The HydroGeoSphere column model is saved to your account, and can be accessed at any point to run soil moisture forecasts.

Step 5) Specify Forecast Dates/Duration

Accessing the ‘Forecast Simulations’ tab allows you to choose when a forecast is launched (typically same day) and the duration of the forecast. At this stage in development, we plan to support 16 and 32-day forecasts, but we hope to extend the forecast duration in the future if they are ‘skilled’ enough (i.e. if the extended forecasts are accurate enough).

Step 6) Launch the Forecast and Analyze the Results!

Forecast simulations are run in the cloud and can be accessed after just a few moments.

We are in the very early stages of developing this new technology and would like to garner some feedback from potential users in a wide variety of industries and representing different stakeholder groups. If you would like to leave your feedback please complete the survey below, or contact info@aquanty.com to schedule a demonstration/discussion about this emerging technology!

Click here to leave feedback on our Sub-seasonal soil moisture forecasting survey.

Note: all features, capabilities, benefits, and representations of the soil-moisture forecasting technology are subject to change.